Braves aim to bounce back against Brewers

Baseball Betting Lines

07/17/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Braves can't afford to lose any ground in the competitive National League East Division. Tonight they have a good shot at bouncing back with Tim Hudson on the mound in the third test of a four-game series versus the Milwaukee Brewers at Turner Field.

After taking the opener of this series by a 2-1 score on Thursday, the Braves dropped a 9-3 decision last night and starter Tommy Hanson was roughed up for four runs -- three earned -- in five innings to suffer the loss. Kenshin Kawakami did no better by allowing three runs in an inning of work.

"When you don't pitch and you don't play defense and you don't get any timely hits, that's a good formula for getting taken out behind the woodshed," Braves veteran Chipper Jones said.

Troy Glaus and Brain McCann both knocked in a run and Jones ended 0-for-3 for the Braves, who still lead the NL East by five games over New York and 5 1/2 games ahead of Philadelphia. The Mets and Phils lost on Friday.

Atlanta lost for just the second time in seven tries and hopes Hudson can pitch the ballclub back into the win column. Hudson, who has alternated wins and losses over his previous seven decisions, pitched seven shutout innings in last Saturday's 4-0 road victory against the Mets.

Hudson allowed four hits, struck out three and issued a pair of walks to improve to 9-4 in 18 starts and lower his ERA to 2.30. He will try to remain dominant at home, as he sports a 5-2 record in seven trips to the Turner Field mound. Hudson will also face Milwaukee for a second time in 2010 and beat the Brewers back on May 11 at Miller Park, hurling six innings of one-run ball in an 11-3 rout.

The right-hander is 3-2 with a 2.98 earned run average in seven career starts against the Brewers.

Milwaukee won for the fourth time in five tries with its six-run victory over the Braves and got a decent performance from starter Randy Wolf. The southpaw held the Braves to three runs and seven hits in six innings, while Todd Coffey, Zach Braddock, Kameron Loe and Trevor Hoffman went the rest of the way to preserve the win.

"I think I've only had a few good games in this stadium, but I felt pretty good today," Wolf said. "You have to have a good day to really pitch well here. It's gratifying to pitch well against a good team, especially knowing my history of definitely not being Cy Young in this stadium."

Ryan Braun hit a two-run homer, Prince Fielder knocked in a pair of runs and both Casey McGehee and Carlos Gomez recorded three hits for the Brewers, who are nine games off the pace in the NL Central and will also visit Pittsburgh for four contests on the trek.

Brewers starter Chris Narveson hopes his first career appearance against Atlanta goes better than he has fared lately. He'll take the hill tonight and is 7-6 with a 6.02 ERA in 23 games, 14 of which have been starts, this season.

Since winning two straight and three of four decisions, Narveson has dropped consecutive trips to the hill and is coming off a nightmare performance on July 7 in a 15-2 setback versus San Francisco. He was reached for 10 runs -- nine earned -- and nine hits through 3 1/3 innings.

The left-hander is 4-3 in 12 games (7 starts) as the guest in 2010.

The Braves had won five straight and seven of their last eight versus the Brewers before last night's game.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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