D-Backs host Astros, shoot for fifth straight win

Baseball Betting Lines

09/04/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Recent trade acquisition Joe Saunders tries to make it two wins in a row for the first time since arriving in Arizona tonight, when the Diamondbacks meet the Houston Astros in the middle matchup of a three-game weekend series at Chase Field.

The red-hot hosts won Friday's opener, 4-3, on Augie Ojeda's sacrifice fly in the bottom of the eighth inning. Adam LaRoche went 2-for-4 with two runs batted in and Gerardo Parra added two hits and a run scored for the Diamondbacks, who have won four in a row and seven of eight while outscoring their opponents by a 58-28 margin.

Aaron Heilman (5-5) earned the win with a scoreless top of the eighth and Juan Gutierrez worked a scoreless ninth to preserve the victory and earn his seventh save.

Wilton Lopez (5-1) suffered the loss after yielding the deciding run on one hit over one inning of work for the Astros, who had a three-game win streak snuffed out.

Saunders, a 29-year-old Virginia native, has won just two of seven starts since the late-July transaction that brought him to the National League from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in exchange for right-hander Dan Haren.

The left-hander allowed just three runs in 16 innings over his initial two NL outings, but then lost four in a row while surrendering 23 runs in his next 22 innings pitched. He bounced back for a win in his most recent effort, allowing two runs on 10 hits across eight innings in Arizona's 7-2 home triumph over San Diego on Monday.

Saunders has never faced the Astros.

Right-hander Bud Norris tries to restart a win streak for Houston when he opposes Saunders tonight. The 25-year-old, who won six games in 11 appearances as a rookie last season, was 2-7 this season before a seven-start unbeaten streak that saw him record four straight wins.

That run ended in his last performance, however, when Norris was touched for five runs on eight hits in a 5-1 loss to the New York Mets last Sunday in Queens.

Prior to that game, the Astros had won six straight Norris starts as he dropped his earned run average more than a run from 6.09 to 5.03.

The former sixth-round draft pick (2006) has lost his two career starts against the Diamondbacks, while giving up 12 runs in 11 hits in just six innings.

Arizona has now won four of five meetings with the Astros this season following Friday's result.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.