Italy takes back top spot

Soccer Betting Lines

09/19/2007 - Zurich, Switzerland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The FIFA/Coca-Cola rankings for the month of September were released on Wednesday, and they saw Italy regain the top spot by moving ahead of both Argentina and Brazil.

The Italians win over Ukraine in EURO 2008 qualifying was enough to knock Brazil from the top spot down to third, while Argentina remained in second.

Those top three teams have a comfortable edge on the rest of the field, which is lead by Germany, who moved up one spot into fourth. France fell two places after losing to Scotland in EURO qualifying, while the Netherlands took advantage and jumped up into the top five.

Spain sits in seventh, up one place, while Croatia and the Czech Republic both dropped. The Czechs fell two spots into 11th, while Croatia lost four places but stays in the top 10 at 10th. Capitalizing on this was Portugal, who is up two rankings into eighth, while England moves back into the top 10 at ninth with a three-spot improvement.

The Scots used that win over France, as well as one over Lithuania, to climb to their highest ever spot in the rankings, up nine places to 14th.

Mexico dropped two spots to 13th, but still remains the highest rated team in CONCACAF because the United States moved down one spot to 18th after dropping a 4-2 contest to Brazil. Friendlies in October against Catalonia and Switzerland will give the Stars and Stripes a chance to improve on that ranking.

There was plenty of movement outside of the top 50 teams, but Colombia and Guinea both enjoyed big jumps within the top 50. The South American club climbed seven spots to 24th, while Guinea enjoyed a 12-spot improvement to reach 30th.

The biggest drop in the rankings was suffered by Bosnia-Herzegovina, who lost 14 spots down to 39th. Cameroon also had a tough month, dropping nine places to 25th.

The next FIFA/Coca-Cola rankings will be released on October 24.

Points are accumulated based on the results of a team's matches over the past four years, the importance of each match, the strength of the opponent, the strength of the region and the number of matches per year that each team plays.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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