Robert Morris battles Quinnipiac for NEC crown

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/10/2010 - Hamden, CT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The top-seeded Quinnipiac Bobcats and the second-seeded Robert Morris Colonials are set to collide in the championship game of the 2010 Northeast Conference Tournament, and the winner will receive an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.

Robert Morris has won the NEC Tournament title six times, more than any other active member of the league, and one of the six crowns was earned last season. In the 2008 championship game, the Colonials knocked off Mount St. Mary's by a 48-46 final. Robert Morris is 22-11 this season, and after defeating seventh- seeded Central Connecticut State in Thursday's quarterfinal round, the Colonials knocked off third-seeded Mount St. Mary's in impressive fashion on Sunday, 80-62.

As for Quinnipiac, it has never won this event. The Bobcats defeated eighth- seeded Monmouth by nine points on Thursday and squeaked by fourth-seeded Long Island on Sunday, 83-78. Quinnipiac, which owns a 23-8 overall record, did reach the NEC Tournament title tilt in 2002, but it fell by seven points to Central Connecticut State.

Quinnipiac beat Robert Morris by an 87-79 final during the regular season, but the Colonials still hold a 14-8 advantage in the all-time series.

Robert Morris is not an explosive offensive team, as it is averaging a modest 69.0 ppg on 43.8 percent shooting from the floor. Fortunately, the Colonials have been able to limit foes to 66.2 ppg on 41 percent field goal efficiency. Karon Abraham leads the team with 13.3 ppg, and he is a 44.9 percent shooter from three-point range. The only other double-digit scorer in the fold is Rob Robinson with his 10.1 ppg on 51.6 percent shooting. In the 18-point romp over Mount St. Mary's in the semifinal round, Abraham scored 19 points, while Robinson tallied 14 points. Dallas Green pitched in 11 points for the Colonials, and Velton Jones contributed 10 points. Robert Morris connected on 53.7 percent of its field goal attempts and turned the ball over only eight times.

Quinnipiac is posting 74.3 ppg while permitting 66.5 ppg to opponents. The top offensive performer for the Bobcats is James Feldeine, who is netting 17.1 ppg to go along with 6.0 rpg, 79 assists and 46 steals. Justin Rutty is a monster on the boards, as he is ripping down 11.0 rpg in addition to scoring 15.2 ppg on 53.7 percent shooting from the floor. James Johnson is the third and final double-digit scorer on the roster with his 12.2 ppg. Rutty scored 22 points and ripped down 16 boards in the five-point win over Long Island in the semifinals. Deontay Twyman contributed 16 points off the bench for Quinnipiac, which received 13 points from Feldeine and 10 points from Jonathan Cruz. A 25-8 advantage in points from the foul line was the most obvious key to victory.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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Kurt Warner to start, Matt Leinart to watch

Despite the debate that's swirling , Kurt Warner will remain the starting quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals, coach Dennis Green said today. The Arizona Cardinals are the +7 point underdog at online sportsbook MySportsbook.com for this Sunday's game.

Green's comment came in a statement released by the team following an ESPN report that Green decided that rookie Matt Leinart would replace Warner as starter for Sunday's game at Atlanta.

"Generally talking about the starting lineup is not something we do," Green told the AP. "However, given the speculation that was out there we want to make it clear. We're disappointed after last week, but we still expect to be a playoff football team and we fully expect Kurt Warner to be the quarterback that leads us. That has not changed."

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